Oklahoma City, Wichita in bull’s-eye for potential severe weather outbreak Monday

OKLAHOMA CITY – Tens of millions of people from the Plains to the Midwest again face the risk of a potentially violent and life-threatening severe weather outbreak that could bring long-track tornadoes, giant hail and hurricane-force wind gusts to areas still reeling from extreme weather over the past few weeks that left several people dead.

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The FOX Forecast Center said the dangerous setup begins Monday afternoon as numerous thunderstorms, including potential supercell thunderstorms, will develop and move eastward across the southern and central Plains, likely continuing well after dark Monday night. That severe weather threat will expand eastward Tuesday and Wednesday.

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A “negatively tilted” trough – a dip in the jet stream that tilts from southeast to northwest as you move higher in latitude – will drive the severe weather threat as it slides across the High Plains.

“Well, that negatively tilted trough, that’s going to bring in a deepening surface low into the Plains by Monday afternoon,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Jane Minar said. “The dryline sets up the division, of course, between moisture and dry air. And so with that, we’re going to see this natural pull with these storms and that (wind) shear twisting with height that we get into the atmosphere.”

And where that happens, there is the potential for extremely tall thunderstorms that will be twisting with height.

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Oklahoma City in Level 4 out of 5 risk of severe weather Monday

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More than 25 million people from Texas to South Dakota are at risk of severe thunderstorms on Monday. However, portions of Kansas and Oklahoma face a significantly higher threat.

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NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed more than 2 million people across south-central Kansas and western and central Oklahoma in a Level 4 out of 5 risk on its 5-point severe thunderstorm risk scale.

Cities in that heightened risk zone in Oklahoma include Oklahoma City, Norman, Lawton and Edmond. Wichita, Kansas, is also on alert.

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Strong tornadoes appear likely on Monday

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The SPC has also highlighted those same areas as being at risk of tornadoes on Monday, with some of those expected to become strong (EF-2 or higher).

There is also the risk of potentially long-track tornadoes, too.

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There is no hard definition of a long-track tornado, but many forecasters believe it’s a tornado that’s on the ground for 15-20 miles or more.

“So, Oklahoma City up to Wichita, these communities, even across the state, need to be on high alert, knowing where that safe place is, where the shelter is and getting there quickly. Having those conversations with your family this afternoon is very important.”

The SPC said “very large to giant hail” is also likely on Monday. According to the National Weather Service, giant hail is larger than 2.75 inches in diameter, which is baseball-sized or larger.

Damaging wind gusts of 60 mph or higher are also likely across the region, but areas under the greatest risk of severe weather on Monday could see winds gust higher than a Category 1 hurricane.

People living in areas where severe weather is likely on Monday and into the middle of the week should prepare now to stay safe, including downloading the free FOX Weather app.